FEATURED CONTENT | strategy and research | November 14, 2008
Deeply grounded in contemporary social currents and political passions, the Obama campaign took the scope of campaign communication and activity into whole new realms and, in the process, dwarfed McCain’s efforts. Obama’s election was produced by an extraordinary shift in the way the citizenry gets information and relates to candidates and the Obama campaign’s ability to exploit that at every level.
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Deeply grounded in contemporary social currents and political passions, the Obama campaign took the scope of campaign communication and activity into whole new realms and, in the process, dwarfed McCain’s efforts. Obama’s election was produced by an extraordinary shift in the way the citizenry gets information and relates to candidates and the Obama campaign’s ability to exploit that at every level.
From Stanley Greenberg’s New York Times op-ed, Tuesday, November 11, 2008: I’m finished with the Reagan Democrats in Macomb County in Michigan after making a career of spotlighting their middle-class anger and frustrations about race and Democratic politicians. Bill Clinton wrote in his autobiography that my “extensive research on the so-called Reagan Democrats and what it would take to bring them home” was the reason he hired me as his pollster for his presidential campaign.
On November 7, Stan Greenberg, Chairman and CEO of Greenberg Quinlan Rosner and co-founder of Democracy Corps released the findings of a unique post-election survey conducted for Democracy Corps and the Campaign for America’s Future. The survey provides the most comprehensive analysis to date of what happened in Tuesday’s historic elections and why.
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John McCain entered tonight’s debate needing to halt Barack Obama’s momentum and fundamentally change the dynamic of the race. Not only did he fail to achieve this goal, McCain dug himself an even deeper hole. Undecided voters watching the debate felt McCain gave a decidedly un-presidential performance, appearing rude, negative, and easily flustered – a stark contrast to Barack Obama’s cool, commanding presence.
Barack Obama once again won a presidential debate, and undecided voters are prepared to move toward his candidacy, according to Democracy Corps research conducted around tonight’s second presidential debate. This debate was a clear victory for Obama who made major gains not just in the vote among undecided voters, but also on personal favorability and key attributes like ‘has what it takes to be President,’ which ultimately drove these swing voters into his column.
With Barack Obama gaining momentum, John McCain needed to change the dynamic in the race during tonight’s debate and to shift the focus of the campaign onto friendlier terrain. Instead, Democracy Corps research finds that McCain essentially held his ground in this debate, while Obama emerged with higher personal favorability and increased confidence in his [...]
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After nearly a year of remarkably consistent numbers in key metrics of the country’s political environment, we are seeing significant movement as rapidly deteriorating attitudes toward the economy drive ratings of the country’s direction, consumer confidence, and President Bush’s job approval marks to new lows. Approval of Congress has also fallen, but the anger is not directed at the “Democratic Congress” which has seen a decline in its negatives this year - in fact, the country’s profound change dynamic has resulted in the massive Democratic advantage in the generic congressional ballot growing even larger in March.
Despite recent coverage of shifting attitudes toward the war in Iraq and the Democratic Congress, the latest public polls show the country’s political environment remains fundamentally unchanged, with President Bush and Republicans in Congress still deeply unpopular and Democrats maintaining a significant electoral advantage at the congressional level one year before the next election. Broad disapproval of Congress as an institution reflects the massive change dynamic still driving the electorate and is not directed at the new Democratic leadership.
Three new surveys released immediately prior to the sixth anniversary of the 9/11 attacks and the progress reports of Gen. Petraeus and Ambassador Crocker show that the country’s political environment remains essentially unchanged - bad news for the White House and congressional Republicans. Most important to the current moment, attitudes on Iraq are unmoved and voters indicate little receptivity to reports of progress from Petraeus and the Bush administration. The wealth of data on Iraq in these new polls reveals a great deal about public attitudes on Iraq and how inflexible they are. Key findings include a clear sense that the surge is not working, skepticism of the Petraeus report, unwavering support for withdrawal and a clear deadline, and a clear belief that the war in Iraq is not making us safer.
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